New Zealand Climate Projections Dataset
Updated climate projections
This website provides information and access to the climate projections dataset, please use the menu above to access the different datasets including the Core Public Dataset. To see this information on a map, for national or territorial authority insights, or definitions of the climate variables used, please visit the Ministry for the Environment’s website for details.
Climate projections overview on Ministry for the Environment
About the climate projections dataset
NIWA have recently completed an update of the national climate projections for Aotearoa New Zealand, previously released in 2018. This data provides us with information about key climate variables such as temperature, rainfall, wind, and drought and how they might change into the future. For example, what might average temperatures look like in Invercargill in 50 years, or how much rainfall could we expect in Taranaki by 2100. These projections were created using six global models, published as part of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report in 2021, and downscaled to provide New Zealand specific projections at a 5km grid. The data is also provided as a multi model mean or “ensemble”, meaning it shows the average of the values produced by each of the six climate models used by NIWA for the downscaling process. Further information on this process can be found in the reports on Methodology and Bias Correction, or on the NIWA site.
The following citations apply to this dataset:
Gibson, P. B., Stuart, S., Sood, A., Stone, D., Rampal, N., Lewis, H., Broadbent, A., Thatcher, M., & Morgenstern, O. (2024). Dynamical downscaling CMIP6 models over New Zealand: added value of climatology and extremes. Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07337-5, 27p.
Gibson, P. B., Campbell, I., Lewis, H., Rampal, N., Fedaeff, N., Woolley, J-M. (2024). User Guidance of CMIP6 Downscaled Data for Aotearoa New Zealand. NIWA Report prepared for MfE, 20p.(download)
Using the climate projections data
The climate projections data is freely accessible under this license and subject to this acceptable use policy. By accessing the data products you are agreeing to these terms. It is your responsibility to respect the licensing terms that apply.
Further information
This work has been funded by the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment and delivered by NIWA, the Ministry for the Environment, and Climate Data Initiative.
For more information about the Climate Projections, please visit the Ministry for the Environment’s website.
For any feedback or inquiries, please contact the Climate Data Initiative team.